ABSTRACT
Coal is one of the most importa~t energy resources in South Africa.
It covers 80% of the country's energy needs and provides valuable
foreign exchange and employment. The purpose of this thesis is to
provide an analytical framework for the examination of the demand
for coal for the generation of electricity where more than 50%
of the coal produced in the country is consumed.
More specifically, the aim of the thesis is to identify the factors
influencing the demand for steam-coal, disentangle their interrelationships,
and evaluate their relative influence and importance.
Three factors are identified as determining the demand for steamcoal,
and they are analysed. These factors are: (1) the demand for
electricity; (2) the efficiency with which the electricity generating
utility transforms the chemical energy in coal into useful electricity;
and (3) the share of coal-fired power stations in the market for
electricity generation.
A comprehensive review of the literature forecasting the demand for
electricity in South Africa indicates the lack of research on the
effects of price on the demand for electricity. Consequently, the
effect of price on the demand for electricity is estimated and a
forecasting model incorporating the long-term price effect on the
demand is developed. The long-term price elasticity of demand is
found to have a value of -0.9
The investigation of the system thermal efficiency (STE) consists
of a description and comparison of future technological sources of
improvement in efficiency, an analysis of the way with which the STE
changes, and a model for forecasti~g.-STE in technology importing
countries. The model is based on the identification of the speed
with which technology is transferred to the home country from abroad
and of the adjustment process of the system's efficiency to that of
the best plant. The application of the model to South African data
shows that under current conditions improvements of the order of 20
to 25 percent over the 1982 STE can be expect~d over the next 30
years, and that the use of dry cooling technology would restrict the
STE to current levels.
The projection of the quantity of electricity to be produced by coalfired
power plants is determined by the availability of resources and
the economic merit of the various modes of production. The comparison
of economic merit of nuclear and coal-fired power stations indicates
that nuclear energy will have an apparent cost advantage over
electricity produced by coal-fired power plants by the year 2000·.
The thesis concludes with a synthesis of the partial analyses into a
forecasting model of the demand for steam-coal. Conditional
predict~ons up to the year 2020 are developed and are compared with
official forecasts.
Pouris, A (2021). Coal Demand For Electricity Generation In South Africa - Analysis And Conditional Forecasts To The Year•2020. Afribary. Retrieved from https://afribary.com/works/coal-demand-for-electricity-generation-in-south-africa-analysis-and-conditional-forecasts-to-the-year-2020
Pouris, Anastassios "Coal Demand For Electricity Generation In South Africa - Analysis And Conditional Forecasts To The Year•2020" Afribary. Afribary, 15 May. 2021, https://afribary.com/works/coal-demand-for-electricity-generation-in-south-africa-analysis-and-conditional-forecasts-to-the-year-2020. Accessed 04 Oct. 2024.
Pouris, Anastassios . "Coal Demand For Electricity Generation In South Africa - Analysis And Conditional Forecasts To The Year•2020". Afribary, Afribary, 15 May. 2021. Web. 04 Oct. 2024. < https://afribary.com/works/coal-demand-for-electricity-generation-in-south-africa-analysis-and-conditional-forecasts-to-the-year-2020 >.
Pouris, Anastassios . "Coal Demand For Electricity Generation In South Africa - Analysis And Conditional Forecasts To The Year•2020" Afribary (2021). Accessed October 04, 2024. https://afribary.com/works/coal-demand-for-electricity-generation-in-south-africa-analysis-and-conditional-forecasts-to-the-year-2020