Coal Demand For Electricity Generation In South Africa - Analysis And Conditional Forecasts To The Year•2020

ABSTRACT

Coal is one of the most importa~t energy resources in South Africa.

It covers 80% of the country's energy needs and provides valuable

foreign exchange and employment. The purpose of this thesis is to

provide an analytical framework for the examination of the demand

for coal for the generation of electricity where more than 50%

of the coal produced in the country is consumed.

More specifically, the aim of the thesis is to identify the factors

influencing the demand for steam-coal, disentangle their interrelationships,

and evaluate their relative influence and importance.

Three factors are identified as determining the demand for steamcoal,

and they are analysed. These factors are: (1) the demand for

electricity; (2) the efficiency with which the electricity generating

utility transforms the chemical energy in coal into useful electricity;

and (3) the share of coal-fired power stations in the market for

electricity generation.

A comprehensive review of the literature forecasting the demand for

electricity in South Africa indicates the lack of research on the

effects of price on the demand for electricity. Consequently, the

effect of price on the demand for electricity is estimated and a

forecasting model incorporating the long-term price effect on the

demand is developed. The long-term price elasticity of demand is

found to have a value of -0.9

The investigation of the system thermal efficiency (STE) consists

of a description and comparison of future technological sources of

improvement in efficiency, an analysis of the way with which the STE

changes, and a model for forecasti~g.-STE in technology importing

countries. The model is based on the identification of the speed

with which technology is transferred to the home country from abroad

and of the adjustment process of the system's efficiency to that of

the best plant. The application of the model to South African data

shows that under current conditions improvements of the order of 20

to 25 percent over the 1982 STE can be expect~d over the next 30

years, and that the use of dry cooling technology would restrict the

STE to current levels.

The projection of the quantity of electricity to be produced by coalfired

power plants is determined by the availability of resources and

the economic merit of the various modes of production. The comparison

of economic merit of nuclear and coal-fired power stations indicates

that nuclear energy will have an apparent cost advantage over

electricity produced by coal-fired power plants by the year 2000·.

The thesis concludes with a synthesis of the partial analyses into a

forecasting model of the demand for steam-coal. Conditional

predict~ons up to the year 2020 are developed and are compared with

official forecasts.