Abstract:
Livestock are still the major vehicle to support pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods in terms of food security and income generation in eastern Ethiopia. However, climate variability is negatively affecting the livestock systems through reducing water and feed resources. In this context, failure to timely understanding and responding to this environmental influence under smallholder conditions would lead to worst scenarios on livestock production and thereby affecting the livestock herders’ livelihoods. Therefore, the objective of this PhD dissertation was to understand the inter-connection between rainfall variability, livestock performance, feed resources availability and quality, as well as herd size and soil carbon balance in semiarid areas of eastern Ethiopia. Moreover, perception of livestock herders on challenges and their adaptation strategies under changing climate was also assessed. The data of long-term rainfall (1984-2015) were obtained from the National Meteorology Agency; livestock population and its production, mortality and off take rates from Central Statistics Agency (1992-2015), and respective livestock herders. El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events information was also collected from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Moreover, livestock herder’s perception, challenges and adaptation strategies posed by rainfall variability were obtained using semi-structured questionnaires from 384 household heads interviews. Rainfall trend was analyzed using Mann-Kendall’s statistical tests. Coefficients of variation (CV), and standardized rainfall anomaly (SRA) were used to calculate rainfall variability, and the drought frequency, respectively. The Livelihood Early Assessment and Protection (LEAP) software was used to calculate the rangeland water requirement satisfaction index (WRSI). In addition, regression analysis was used to assess the association of rainfall variability with livestock population, milk yield, mortality, off-take rate, and rangeland WRSI. Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario was used for determining rainfall projection. The JAVA model was used to study the relationship between feed availability, livestock performance and carbon balance. The Mann-Kendall trend test showed an insignificant increasing and decreasing trend of annual rainfall in all study zones and districts. In contrast, 92% of the respondents perceived a decreasing trend of annual and xvi seasonal rainfall in all study districts. The future rainfall trend is also expected to increase (P>0.05). The CV values for both current and future rainfall confirmed moderate (23.1%) to high (35.4%) variability of rainfall. The SRA indicated that drought has occurred every two to five years. The mean annual rainfall variability had strong association (P
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