Modeling of liver cancer risk factors and dynamics at community level

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a malignant cancer of the liver arising from uncontrolled multiplication of the abnormal liver cells. It is an ignored public health condition where patients come late to the hospital at terminal stages. Its development is proceeded by liver inflammation arising from the risk factors of HCC affecting the liver. HCC is one of the few cancers with both infectious and non-infectious causes. The common causes range from infections with viral hepatitis B and C and non-infectious conditions which include excess alcohol intake, aflatoxins, iron overload, genetic pre-disposition, environmental factors, obesity, and about 18% are of unknown causes. While HCC has been observed in HIV positive persons, it is known that HIV alone cause liver inflammation but there is no direct causal relation with HCC. A model based on a system of differential equations has been formulated to investigate the impact of the HCC infectious risk factors and HIV on the dynamics of HCC. The existence of the stable steady equilibrium states was determined with respect to the reproduction number R0 derived using the next generation matrix approach. Stability analysis of the model was done to determine the condition for the spread and magnitude of the HCC as a result of the infectious risk factors. Numerical simulation was done using MATLAB software to graphically illustrate the effect of the risk factors on the dynamics of the HCC in the community. The finding of this study provides healthcare workers and stakeholders with knowledge on liver cancer dynamics and this could be used to improve on prevention of HCC and formulation of policy on HCC prevention and management.