Spatial Electric Load Forecasting; A case of Zimbabwe Electricity Transmission and Distribution Company (ZETDC), Mutare

SSA Research HELEN NGONIDZASHE SERERE 54 PAGES (11315 WORDS) Dissertation
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

APPROVAL FORM .................................................................................................................. I

RELEASE FORM ..................................................................................................................... II

DEDICATION ......................................................................................................................... III

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ..................................................................................................... IV

TABLE OF CONTENTS .......................................................................................................... V

LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................ VIII

LIST OF ACRONYMS ........................................................................................................... IX

CHAPTER ONE ........................................................................................................................ 1

1.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................................... 1

1.2 BACKGROUND ........................................................................................................................................... 1

1.3 PROBLEM DEFINITION ............................................................................................................................... 2

1.4 AIM ........................................................................................................................................................... 2

1.4.1 Specific objectives ........................................................................................................................... 2

1.4.2 Research questions ......................................................................................................................... 3

1.5 JUSTIFICATION OF STUDY .......................................................................................................................... 3

1.6 STUDY AREA ............................................................................................................................................. 3

1.7 PROJECT OUTLINE ..................................................................................................................................... 4

CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................ 6

2.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................................... 6

2.2 WHY LOAD FORECASTING ......................................................................................................................... 6

2.3 TYPES OF LOAD FORECASTING .................................................................................................................. 8

2.4 LOAD FORECASTING METHODS AND FACTORS ........................................................................................... 9

2.4.1 Short term ....................................................................................................................................... 9

2.4.2 Medium and long term .................................................................................................................. 10

2.5 THE ENHANCEMENT OF SPATIAL DATA IN LOAD FORECASTING ............................................................... 14

2.6 SPATIAL LOAD FORECASTING CASE STUDIES ........................................................................................... 15

2.7 CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................................................... 16

CHAPTER THREE: METHODS ............................................................................................ 17

3.1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................................... 17

3.2 RESEARCH DESIGN .................................................................................................................................. 17

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3.3 STUDY POPULATION ................................................................................................................................ 17

3.4 DATA COLLECTION TECHNIQUE ............................................................................................................... 17

3.5 DATA DESCRIPTION ................................................................................................................................. 18

3.5.1 Historical electric usage data ....................................................................................................... 18

3.5.2 City of Mutare master plan ........................................................................................................... 18

3.5.3 Mutare cadastral map ................................................................................................................... 18

3.6 DATA PROCESSING .................................................................................................................................. 18

3.7 METHODS FLOW CHART .......................................................................................................................... 20

3.8 DATA MODELLING: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS TOOLS ................................................................................. 21

3.8.1 Exploratory regression ................................................................................................................. 21

3.8.2 Ordinary least squares regression ................................................................................................ 21

3.9 CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................................................... 21

CHAPTER FOUR: RESULTS .................................................................................................... 22

4.1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................................... 22

4.2 EXPLORATORY REGRESSION.................................................................................................................... 22

4.3 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES REGRESSION ................................................................................................ 23

4.4 CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................................................... 29

CHAPTER FIVE: ANALYSIS OF RESULTS .................................................................................... 30

CHAPTER SIX: LIMITATIONS, RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS ........................ 31

6.1 RESEARCH LIMITATIONS ......................................................................................................................... 31

6.2 RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................................................................... 31

6.3 CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................................................... 31

REERENCE LIST ................................................................................................................................ 33

ANNEXURES ...................................................................................................................................... 35

ANNEXURE 1: EXPLORATORY REGRESSION ...................................................................................................... 35

ANNEXURE 2: ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES REPORT .......................................................................................... 39

Variable Distributions and Relationships .................................................................................................... 40

Histogram of Standardized Residuals ......................................................................................................... 41

Residual vs. Predicted Plot .......................................................................................................................... 42

Ordinary Least Squares Parameters ............................................................................................................ 43

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APA

SSA, R (2021). Spatial Electric Load Forecasting; A case of Zimbabwe Electricity Transmission and Distribution Company (ZETDC), Mutare. Afribary.com: Retrieved May 12, 2021, from https://afribary.com/works/spatial-electric-load-forecasting-a-case-of-zimbabwe-electricity-transmission-and-distribution-company-zetdc-mutare

MLA 8th

Research, SSA. "Spatial Electric Load Forecasting; A case of Zimbabwe Electricity Transmission and Distribution Company (ZETDC), Mutare" Afribary.com. Afribary.com, 04 May. 2021, https://afribary.com/works/spatial-electric-load-forecasting-a-case-of-zimbabwe-electricity-transmission-and-distribution-company-zetdc-mutare . Accessed 12 May. 2021.

MLA7

Research, SSA. "Spatial Electric Load Forecasting; A case of Zimbabwe Electricity Transmission and Distribution Company (ZETDC), Mutare". Afribary.com, Afribary.com, 04 May. 2021. Web. 12 May. 2021. < https://afribary.com/works/spatial-electric-load-forecasting-a-case-of-zimbabwe-electricity-transmission-and-distribution-company-zetdc-mutare >.

Chicago

Research, SSA. "Spatial Electric Load Forecasting; A case of Zimbabwe Electricity Transmission and Distribution Company (ZETDC), Mutare" Afribary.com (2021). Accessed May 12, 2021. https://afribary.com/works/spatial-electric-load-forecasting-a-case-of-zimbabwe-electricity-transmission-and-distribution-company-zetdc-mutare