Time Series Analysis on Consumption of Electricity in Kwara State A Case Study of a Nepa District Office From 2001-2015

TABLE OF CONTENT

COVER PAGE

APPROVAL PAGE

DEDICATION

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

TABLE OF CONTENT

1.1           INTRODUCTION

1.2           BACKGROUND AND ITS OPERATION

1.3           SIGNIFICANCE

1.4           SCOPE OF STUDY

1.5           AIMS AND OBJECTIVE

1.6           PROBLEMS AND LIMITATION OF STUDY

1.7           DEFINITION OF TERMS

1.8           ABBREVIATION USED

CHAPTER TWO

2.0     LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1     METHOD OF DATA ANALYSIS

2.2     TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

2.3     IMPORTANCE OF TIME SERIES

2.4     NATURE OF TIME SERIES

2.5     CHARACTERISTICS OF TIME SERIES

2.6     TIME SERIES MODELS

2.7     OTHER COMPONENT OF THE TIME SERIES MODEL

2.8     AUTO REGRESSIVE MODEL

2.8.1   FIRST ORDER AND SECOND ORDER OF REGRESSIVE MODEL

2.8.2   COMPUTATION OF ESTIMATE

2.8.3   YULE PROCESS AR(2) PARAMETER PROCESS

2.8.4   AUTO CORRELATION FUNCTION FOR AR(2)

2.8.5   FOURIER ANALYSIS

2.8.6   SPECTRUM OF A TIME SERIES

2.8.7.  PERIODIOGRAM

2.8.8   CORRELATIONS

2.8.9   IMPORTANCE OF CORRELATION

CHAPTER THREE

METHODOLOGY

3.0     THEMED OF ESTIMATING TREND

3.1     LEAST SQUARE METHOD

3.2     MOVING AVERAGE METHOD

3.3     SEMI-MOVING AVERAGE METHOD

3.4     FREE HAND METHOD

3.5     ESTIMATION OF SEASONAL VARIATION

3.6     SIMPLE AVERAGE METHOD

3.7     PERCENTAGE TREND METHOD

3.8     RATIO TO MOVING AVERAGE

3.9     FORECASTING

3.9.0   SHORT TERM FORECASTING

3.9.1   INTERMEDIATE FORECASTING    

3.9.2.  LONG TERM FORECASTING

3.9.4   GENERALIZED TEST OF HYPOTHESIS

CHAPTER FOUR

4.1     ANALYSIS OF DATA

CHAPTER FIVE

5.1     SUMMARY OF FINDING

5.2     CONCLUSION

5.3     RECOMMENDATION

5.4     BIBLIOGRAPHY   

 CHAPTER ONE

1.0     INTRODUCTION

          The primary aim of National Electrical Power Authority (NEPA) is in cardinal point which is to generate, transmission, distribution and sales electricity within and outside country.

National Electric Power Authority NEPA can be regarded as heart beat of the nation economy as the operation of machines use in industries and most household equipment depend on electricity.

Today National Electric Power Authority (NEPA) meets total maximum energy demand from the total installed capacity of the Authority power station which is 600mw, the terminal power station are strategically located at Egbin, Ijora, Delta Ugheli, Sapele and Afan, while the hydro power station generate are located at Kanji, Jebba and Shoro, the terminal power station generate electricity for exportation into grid system.

As part of the positive effort of NEPA to ensure the electricity generated reach the appropriate quarters in the next millennium, it has put in place 11,000km of transmission line running across the nation.

Many researchers had previous carried out research work on NEPA, on some aspect of electricity consumption with related objective. Individual article and study of NEPA, they have put forward many analysis and suggestion basically on consumption, supply and distribution of electricity.

According to Chief A.O. Osho of Abule Egba Community in Lagos State, put up a protest on behalf of the community in the daily times of “21st of March 1991” WHY DO WE HAVE INCENSANT POWER FAILURE, Mr. Muyiwa Otunowo (P.R.O) Nepa Lagos South directorable through a booklet title “planning ahead of NEPA” answered the question he said NEPA plans ahead a very much so to meet adequate constant and supply of electricity, the future demand must be known since we can not produce and store electricity. The national electricity as can be done to most of consumer goods or water.