Reflections on the 2016 U.S presidential elections
On September 26, 2016, Hillary Clinton was regarded by post-debate polls to have defeated Donald Trump in the first Presidential debate, and her odds of election in the Bet fair prediction market increased from 63 to 69 percent. Given that most financial markets are typically quiet during that time, movements in asset prices likely reflect market participants’ collective view of the impact of the 2016 election. During the debate event window, U.S., UK and Asian stock markets rose, crude o...