Reflections on the 2016 U.S presidential elections

 On September 26, 2016, Hillary Clinton was regarded by post-debate polls to have defeated Donald Trump in the first Presidential debate, and her odds of election in the Bet fair prediction market increased from 63 to 69 percent. Given that most financial markets are typically quiet during that time, movements in asset prices likely reflect market participants’ collective view of the impact of the 2016 election. During the debate event window, U.S., UK and Asian stock markets rose, crude oil rose, the currencies of trading partners such as Mexico, South Korea, and Canada rose against the dollar, and expected future U.S. stock market volatility dropped sharply. Given the magnitude of the price movements, we estimate that market participants believe that a Trump victory would reduce the value of the S&P 500, the UK, and Asian stock markets by 10-15%, would reduce the oil price by $4, would lead to a 25% decline in the Mexican Peso, and would significantly increase expected future stock market volatility.

Market movements over the October 7-9 weekend, during which a tape was released that prompted many Republicans to unendorse Trump, tell a largely consistent story. Clinton's probability of election. This analysis will be based on the reflections of the 2016 United States elections.

However, this paper tries to give in depth analysis or the reflections of United States of America elections thus its impact on the global markets. The outcome of the elections were based on the factors or variables such as gender, educational level, race and age margin.it also includes theoretical frame work, research hypothesis, and references. 

Keywords: Elections, democracy, event study, prediction markets, populism, Clinton, Trump, 2016