Analysis Of Cargo Pilferage In Nigerian Seaports: Pre And Post Concession Eras

ABSTRACT

This research was conducted to analyse the incidence and trend of cargo pilferage from 1999 – 2012. In other to do this, the periods were segmented into pre concession years (1999 - 2005) and post concession (2006 - 2012). The effect of concession policy on cargo pilferage was duly considered. To analyse the trend of cargo pilferage for both the pre and post concession era, four hypotheses were formulated. The first hypothesis was tested using the cumulative moving averages (CMA) technique of trend analysis 𝑪𝑴𝑨𝒏 = 𝒙𝟏ା ...ା𝒙𝒏 𝒏 , the mathematical model 𝑪𝑴𝑨𝒏 𝒀𝟏 𝒓ା Whereas the student’s difference of means t- test with the aid of computer based software known as SPSS version 20 was employed for the other three hypotheses, the autoregressive integrated moving average ARIMA model was used to forecast the trend of cargo pilferage in Nigeria Ports. It was discovered among other findings: that the trend of cargo pilferage was on steady increase during the pre-concession era, but experienced a steady progressive decrease during the post concession era, that the steady progressive decrease in the trend of cargo pilferage was forecasted to continue even till 2018; that cargo pilferage had no significant impact on ports’ revenue earnings which made the authorities to attend to it with lip service, that the volume and incidents of cargo pilferage has decreased significantly due largely to the impact of concession, that cargo pilferage had significant impact on cargo security, ports image and perception among others; that cargo security has improved significantly following the advent of port concession policy. It was recommended, among others; that port concessionaires and port authorities should collaborate with relevant port security agencies to ensure that cargo pilferage is fully eradicated in Nigerian seaport; that concessionaires should endeavour to live up to the agreement on the concession policy as regards providing highly sophisticated equipment and facilities for cargo security within their terminals. It was therefore concluded that concession policy has been a veritable tool for dealing with the problem of cargo pilferage in Nigeria seaports.