Abstract:
Understanding the influence rainfall variability on agricultural production is needed to cope with current and future changes in rainfall variables especially in countries that largely rely on rain fed agriculture. The objective of this study was to analysis rainfall variability, farmers’ perception and adaptation strategies in the Daro Lebu Woreda. To achieve this objective, historical climate data from 1995-2019 were obtained from Ethiopian National Metrological Agency. In addition, to elicit perception and adaptation measures, household interviews based on a statistically determined sample of 175 respondents were conducted. Instat software version +v.3.37, SPSS version 20 and XLSTAT 2015 were employed for data analyses. The result indicate that the long-term mean belg kiremt bega and annual rainfall amount showed highly variability (CV=97, 38, 135, 90% and SD = 70, 50, 46, 55mm respectively). Moreover, the result indicated that non-significant increasing trend rainfall amount for both annual and seasonal (belg, kiremt and bega). Observed average number of belg, kiremt and annual was 35, 55 and 107 days with CV of 79, 22 and 67% respectively at the study area. The average belg season onset date was found to be 03 April with high SD (27 days) and moderate variability (CV= 29%), but more variable than kiremt cessation (CV = 9%) and LGP (CV = 20%). The probabilities of getting dry spell length of 5, 7, and 10 days was high is greater than 90,70 and 40% (for the date before the end of 2nd decade of March). This implies that high instability of rain is expected to challenge rain fed agricultural production and the risk of planting moisture sensetive crops have high chance to fail Moreover, the result indicated after early 2nd decade of September the chance of getting dry spell length of 5, 7 and 10 days gradually rise from 80, 50 and 20 to greater than 90, 85, 55% respectively. The survey result showed high perception gap between households; 56% perceived as decreased in amount of rainfall, 29% perceived the rainfall has been increasing while about 14.9% perceived no change in rainfall. Similarly, 71.5% of sample households were perceived late onset of belg rainfall while 20% perceived early onset of belg rain. Moreover, about 75% of households perceived but 20% disagree early cessation of kiremt rain. In addition, Adaptation strategies used by farmers in the study area include adjusting planting date, use of soil conservation techniques, use of improved crop varieties and crop diversification. Farmers use mostly different strategies in combination and prefer to use one among many as most efficient and effective strategy to deal with variable rain. Model results showed that age of the household head, livestock holding, household size and education status, land holding size, access to rainfall information, sources of income, and access to credit are significant factors affecting rainfall adaptation strategies of smallholder farmers. This study has indicated high variability and risk of rainfall variables such as rainfall amount, rainy days, belg rain onset date and chance of different dry spell length and high perception gap between households ; therefore, the author forwarded the following recommendations; Awareness creation and timely based weather information has to provide for farmers. Focused attention should be given to providing improved climate smart technology, increasing farmer’s income source opportunities through supplying sufficient agricultural inputs and creating off and non-farm employment opportunities
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