Analysis of the Determinants of Food and Nutrition Security in Nigeria (1981 - 2020)

ABSTRACT

Food  security  has  become  a  national  priority  for  the  country considering  that  a  vast  majority  of its  198.1  million  population  is  food  insecure.  Food  and  nutrition  insecurity  is  prevalent  in Nigeria  despite  its  favourable  agroecological  endowments.  It  has  a  total  landmass  of  92.4 million  hectares,  out  of  which  only about  32  million  hectares  or  34.63  percent  are  under cultivation.  Nigeria,  therefore,  lacks  both  the  capacity  and  capability  to  cater  for  the  food  and nutrition  requirements  of  its  teeming  population. This study  was  carried  to  analyse  the  determinants  of  food  and  nutrition  security  in  Nigeria. Secondary  data  retrieved  from  FAO  STAT  and  POLITY  IV  was  used  for  the  research. Descriptive  statistics  was  used  to  examine  the  trend  in  aggregate  food  production  and  g raphical evidence  of  indicators  of  food  and  nutrition  security  in  Nigeria  while  inferential  statistics  using Autoregressive  Distributed  Lag  (ARDL)  technique  was  used  to  evaluate  the  determinants  of food  and  nutrition  security  on  food  supply. Graphica l  analysis  of  different  indicators  of  food and  nutrition security showed  that  there  has  been  a  rise  in  the  number  of  undernourished  people in  Nigeria  and  the  prevalence  of  undernourishment  graphical  result  showed  that  slow  growth and  common  childhood  infections  would  last  longer  and  become  more  frequent  and  serious with the  prevalence  of  undernourishment  in  Nigeria  standing  at  over  12%.  The  graphical  result of  the  per  capita  food  production  food  and  nutrition  security  indicator  in  Nigeria  together  with per capita  food  variability  showed  a  very  high  level  of  variability  and  thus  unpredictability  in both  per  capita  food  production  and  supply  in  Nigeria.  Graphical  analysis  of  the  indicator, average  dietary  energy  supply  analysed  together  with  the  prevalence  of undernourishment showed  that  undernourishment  is  mainly  due  to  insufficiency  of  the  food  supply  in  Nigeria. The  GDP per capita  based  on  PPP  for  Nigeria  in  international  dollar  food  and  nutrition  security indicator  when  graphically  analysed  showed  that  alth ough  Nigeria’s  GDP  per  capita  based  on PPP  was  $5,066  as  at  2019,  it  is  unequally  distributed  among  the  poor  and  the  rich  in  Nigeria as  the  cost  of  a  healthy  diet  exceeds  the  international  poverty  line  (established  at  USD  1.90 purchasing  power  parity  (PPP) per  person  per  day)  making  it  unaffordable  for  the  poor. Results  of  Autoregressive  Distributed  Lags  analysis  show  that  agricultural  land which  is  the  proxy  for  rainfall  and  Time  trend  ( T) w ere  found  to  have (LARL) , ( LR) significant  effect  on  food supply. The findings  of  this  study  amongst  other  things  show  that  if  the  food  production  is  not  enhanced and  boosted  in  Nigeria,  it  would  have  grave  consequences  on  the  nation’s  food  and  nutrition security  in  Nigeria. Therefore,  the  study  recommended  that government,  private  sector  and  civil  society organizations  should  invest  and  support  in  resilient  agricultural  development  programmes  to boost  food  production  in  Nigeria . It  was  also  proposed  that  there  was  the  need  for  improving water  management  in  the  agriculture  sector  which  is  particularly  critical  to  enhance  crop, livestock  production  and  other  forms  of  agriculture. The  study  also  recommended  that also  be  a  formulation  of  a  workable  lan d  tenure  system  in  Nig eria  as  it  would should allow  for  easy access  to  land  for  agricultural  use without  infringing  on  the  wellbeing  of  others. 

TABLE OF CONTENT

Title page

Certification

Dedication

Acknowledgement

Table of contents

List of tables

List of figures

Abbreviations

Abstract

CHAPTER ONE

1.0 Introduction

1.1 Background of the study

1.2 Statement of the problem

1.3 Research objectives

1.4 Hypothesis of the study

1.5 Justification of the study

CHAPTER TWO

2.0 Literature Review

2.1 Theoretical Review

2.1.1 Neoliberalism Theory

2.1.2 Dependency Theory

2.1.3 The Entitlement Approach to Food Security

2.1.4 Malthusian and Anti-Malthusian Theory

2.2 Conceptual Review

2.3 Empirical Review

CHAPTER THREE

3.0 Research Methodology

3.1 The Study Area

3.2 Method of Data Collection

3.2.1 Data Source and Description of Variables

3.2.2 Food Security Indicators

3.3 Method of Data Analysis

3.4 Model Specification

3.5 Unit Root Test

3.6 Autoregressive Distributive Lag Approach (ARDL)

3.7 Post Estimation Tests on Regression Analysis (OLS and ARDL)

CHAPTER FOUR

4.0 Result and Discussion

4.1 Trend in Nigeria Food Supply

4.2 Analysis of Indicators of Food and Nutrition Security in Nigeria

4.3 Unit Root Test

4.4 Autoregressive Distributive Lag Analysis

4.5 Regression Analysis Interpretation

4.6 Post Estimation Tests

CHAPTER FIVE

5.0 Summary, Conclusion and Recommendations

5. 1 Summary

5.2 Conclusion

5.3 Recommendations

Appendix: Analysis Results

Reference