Arima Model For Forecasting Of Monthly Rainfall And Temperature In The Lake Victoria Basin

Abstract

Economic activities in Lake Victoria Basin such as agriculture, sh-

ing, mining and transportation depend's heavily on the climatic

conditions of the Lake and its Basin. Global climatic change caused

by Greenhouse Gas emission (GHG) has resulted in a disruptive and

erratic weather pattern for these economic activities. This unpre-

dictable weather variations is responsible for loss of life and destruc-

tion of property. The primary cause of this negative impact is lack

of a reliable information addressing climatic variation within the

region. The main objective of this project was to identify a suit-

able time series model that can be used in predicting, forecasting

and analyzing weather variations.The Box jenskin methodology is

used to build ARIMA model for rainfall and temperature. Data ob-

tained from the Kenya Meteorological Department's Kisumu, Lwak,

and Migori for the years 2007 to 2014 produced An ARIMA (2,0,1)

model for rainfall is using R package. Data for the years 2011 to

2013 were estimated using values from the years 2008 to 2010 and

the relationship showed a strong positive relationship indicating a

high accuracy level on predictability by the model.

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APA

ORYEMA, R (2021). Arima Model For Forecasting Of Monthly Rainfall And Temperature In The Lake Victoria Basin. Afribary. Retrieved from https://afribary.com/works/arima-model-for-forecasting-of-monthly-rainfall-and-temperature-in-the-lake-victoria-basin

MLA 8th

ORYEMA, ROBERT "Arima Model For Forecasting Of Monthly Rainfall And Temperature In The Lake Victoria Basin" Afribary. Afribary, 07 May. 2021, https://afribary.com/works/arima-model-for-forecasting-of-monthly-rainfall-and-temperature-in-the-lake-victoria-basin. Accessed 22 Nov. 2024.

MLA7

ORYEMA, ROBERT . "Arima Model For Forecasting Of Monthly Rainfall And Temperature In The Lake Victoria Basin". Afribary, Afribary, 07 May. 2021. Web. 22 Nov. 2024. < https://afribary.com/works/arima-model-for-forecasting-of-monthly-rainfall-and-temperature-in-the-lake-victoria-basin >.

Chicago

ORYEMA, ROBERT . "Arima Model For Forecasting Of Monthly Rainfall And Temperature In The Lake Victoria Basin" Afribary (2021). Accessed November 22, 2024. https://afribary.com/works/arima-model-for-forecasting-of-monthly-rainfall-and-temperature-in-the-lake-victoria-basin