Abstract: This study was aimed at determining the average performance of teams that participated at the 2014 World Cup in terms of goals scored. Bayesian approach was used to analyze this problem. There was an update of belief about the average goals scored in the tournament through the conjugate Gamma prior and the Poisson likelihood. Using the conjugate Gamma prior and Poisson likelihood, the average goals scored per team was 1.3354 and a posterior standard deviation of 0.1018. The 95% credible interval for the parameter (average goals scored in the tournament) was [1.143, 1.542]. The point estimate for either prior showed that it is within the limit.
Keywords: Bayesian, Chi-Square, Conjugate Gamma Prior, Poisson Likelihood, Credible
Interval.
Mathematics Subject Classification (2010): 62C10 and 62C12
Oladoja, O. (2018). Bayesian Analysis of 2014 FIFA World Cup Matches Played and Goals Scored.. Afribary. Retrieved from https://afribary.com/works/bayesian-analysis-of-2014-fifa-world-cup-matches-played-and-goals-scored
Oladoja, Oladapo "Bayesian Analysis of 2014 FIFA World Cup Matches Played and Goals Scored." Afribary. Afribary, 14 May. 2018, https://afribary.com/works/bayesian-analysis-of-2014-fifa-world-cup-matches-played-and-goals-scored. Accessed 23 Dec. 2024.
Oladoja, Oladapo . "Bayesian Analysis of 2014 FIFA World Cup Matches Played and Goals Scored.". Afribary, Afribary, 14 May. 2018. Web. 23 Dec. 2024. < https://afribary.com/works/bayesian-analysis-of-2014-fifa-world-cup-matches-played-and-goals-scored >.
Oladoja, Oladapo . "Bayesian Analysis of 2014 FIFA World Cup Matches Played and Goals Scored." Afribary (2018). Accessed December 23, 2024. https://afribary.com/works/bayesian-analysis-of-2014-fifa-world-cup-matches-played-and-goals-scored