Commercial Bank Credit And Agricultural Output In Nigeria: (1982-2007)

ABSTRACT
This research work examined the impact of commercial Bank credit on Agricultural output in Nigeria using Macroeconomic variables (commercial bank credit and agricultural output). The broad objective of the study is to investigate the extent to which commercial bank credit had supported agricultural output Nigeria. The specific objectives are: (i) to determine the impact of commercial banks credit on agricultural output in Nigeria, and (i) to determine the impact of agricultural output on economic growth in Nigeria. The methodology adopted  for the study was ordinary least square (OLs) involving the student's T-test, to test  the significance  of the individual parameter estimate, the F-test, to test the significance of the entire regression plane, the R2 and Adjusted R2, to test the joint influence of the explanatory variables on the dependent variable. Finally, Durbin-Watson's statistics (DW) was used to check the presence or absence of serial correlation on the data.  After the regression, the result shows that: firstly, agricultural output as well as commercial bank credit to agriculture and real interest rate contributed a lot to economic growth in Nigeria. Secondly there is a general agreement that Nigeria agricultural sector is grossly underfunded.  Finally, the share of actual expenditure that went to the agricultural sector compared unfavorable with the shares that went to other sectors. Based on the findings above, the researcher made the flowing suggestions:

There is the need for improvement of public expenditure tracking system in agricultural sector.
There is also the need for clarification of the roles of the three tiers of government in agricultural services delivery.
There is the need for applied research targeted at priority issues

 
TABLE OF CONTENTS

TITLE PAGE……………………………………………………………..i
APPROVAL PAGE………………………………………………………ii
DEDICATION…………………………………………………………….ii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT…………………………………………………iv
ABSTRACT………………………………………………………………..vi
TABLE OF CONTENT……………………………………………………viii


CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1    BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY……………………………………….1
1.2    STATEMENT OF PROBLEM…………………..………………………..6
1.3    OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY…………………………….…………..…9
1.4    HYPOTHESIS OF THE STUDY…………………………………………9
1.5    SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY…………………….………………..10
1.6    SCOPE AND LIMITATION OF HE STUDY…………………………..10

CHAPTER TWO
REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE
2.1     THEORETICAL LITERATURE……………………………….……….12

2.1.1 THE PRE-REQUISITE THESIS VERSUS THE CONCURRENCE THESIS……………………………………….14
2.2     FINANCING AGRICULTURE IN NIGERIA …………………………18
2.1.1     SOURCES OF AGRICULTURAL FINANCING …………………….20
2.3     COMMERCIAL BANK CREDIT AND AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT………………………………………………………………... 23 
2.4     EMPIRICAL LITERATURE……………………………………………..28

CHAPTER THREE
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1     MODEL SPECIFICATION …………………………………….……….34
3.2     ESTIMATION PROCEDURE………………..…………………………36
3.3     EVALUATION TECHNIQUES………..………………………………..37
3.4     DATA REQUIRED AND SOURCES…………………………………..41

CHAPTER FOUR
DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
4.1     UNIT ROOT TEST………………………………………………………43
4.2     CO INTEGRATION TEST………………………………………………44
4.3     PRESENTATION AND INTERPRETATION OF RESULT………..46
4.3:1    INTERPRETATION OF REGRESSION RESULT…………..………..47
4.4    EVALUATION OF EMPIRICAL RESULT……………………………..48
4.4:1 ECONOMIC CRITERIA (A PRIORI EXPECTATION)……………....48
4.4:2 STATISTICAL CRITERIA……………………………………………..50
4.4:3 COEFFICIENT OF DETERMINATION (R2)………………………….51
4.4.4 THE T-STATISTICS……………………………………………………..51
4.4.5 THE F-TEST…………………………………………………………….52
4.5. ECONOMIC CRITERIA (SECOND ORDER TEST)…………………53

CHAPTER FIVE
SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION
5.1     SUMMARY……………………………………………..……………..… 59
5.2     CONCLUSION …………………………………………………………..62
5.3     RECOMMENDATION………………………………………..………….63
BIBLIOGRAPHY……………………………………………….…………67
APPENDIX