Comparative Study of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Artificial Neural Network Models in Forecasting Food Prices

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ABSTRACT

 Prices of food are known to be a good indicator of food security and knowledge of their future value cannot be overemphasized. Box-Jenkins ARIMA model is a frequently used approach in forecqsting time series. However, recent researches suggest that Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model can be a good alternative to the conventional use of ARIMA model. This study seeks to examine and compare the forecast efficiency of ARIMA and ANN models for data on food prices in Nigeria. The ARIMA models: ARIMA(J,1,5), ARIMA(0,1,1); ARIMA(0,1,1) and the ANN models: ANN(6,3,1), ANN(6,5,1), ANN(4,8,1) were selected as best fit for the prices of the different food items out of all the suggested models. Results obtained revealed that ANN models had the minimum Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAP E) when compared with AJUMA for all of the food items, hence the conclusion that ANN models produce more efficient forecasts than the Box-Jenkins ARIMA model for predicting food prices in Nigeria. The study also recommended more investment in local agricultural production_and enlightenment of the public on the importance of diet diversification to dampen the price effect on the Nigerian populace.

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APA

Frontiers, E. & Jamil, S (2022). Comparative Study of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Artificial Neural Network Models in Forecasting Food Prices. Afribary. Retrieved from https://afribary.com/works/comparative-study-of-autoregressive-integrated-moving-average-and-artificial-neural-network-models-in-forecasting-food-prices

MLA 8th

Frontiers, Edu, and SULE Jamil "Comparative Study of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Artificial Neural Network Models in Forecasting Food Prices" Afribary. Afribary, 19 Jun. 2022, https://afribary.com/works/comparative-study-of-autoregressive-integrated-moving-average-and-artificial-neural-network-models-in-forecasting-food-prices. Accessed 03 Jul. 2022.

MLA7

Frontiers, Edu, and SULE Jamil . "Comparative Study of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Artificial Neural Network Models in Forecasting Food Prices". Afribary, Afribary, 19 Jun. 2022. Web. 03 Jul. 2022. < https://afribary.com/works/comparative-study-of-autoregressive-integrated-moving-average-and-artificial-neural-network-models-in-forecasting-food-prices >.

Chicago

Frontiers, Edu and Jamil, SULE . "Comparative Study of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Artificial Neural Network Models in Forecasting Food Prices" Afribary (2022). Accessed July 03, 2022. https://afribary.com/works/comparative-study-of-autoregressive-integrated-moving-average-and-artificial-neural-network-models-in-forecasting-food-prices