Crude Oil Price and Economic Growth in Nigerian (1986-2015)

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Title Page……………………………………………………………………………i

Certification…………………………………………………………………………ii

Dedication …………………………………………………………………………..iii

Acknowledgement……………………………………………………………………iv

Table of Contents…………………………………………………………………….vi

Abstract………………………………………………………………………………viii

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background to the Study…………………………………………………………….1

1.2 Statement of the Problem……………………………………………………………3

1.3 Research Questions………………………………………………………………….4

1.4 Objective of the Study……………………………………………………………….4

1.5 Research Hypothesis…………………………………………………………………4

1.6 Significance of the Study…………………………………………………………….5

1.7 Scope of the Study……………………………………………………………………5

1.8 Organization of the Study…………………………………………………………….5

CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Conceptual Review……………………………………………………………………6

2.1.1 Oil Price Shocks…………………………………………………………………….6

2.2 Oil Price Shocks and Economic Activity……………………………………………...8

2.3 Theoretical Review…………………………………………………………………..10

2.3.1 The Linear/symmetric Relationship theory of Growth…………………………….10

2.3.2 The Asymmetry in effect theory of growth Economics……………………………10

2.4 The Dutch Disease Syndrome………………………………………………………..12

2.4.1 Relationship between oil Price Shocks, Shock price Movement…………………..12

on Economic growth.

2.5 Empirical Research…………………………………………………………………..14

2.6 Causes of Oil Price Shocks in Nigeria……………………………………………….21

2.7 Limitation of previous Study………………………………………………………...21

CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3.0 Introduction…………………………………………………………………………..23

3.1 Methodology…………………………………………………………………………23

3.2 Model of Specification……………………………………………………………….23

3.3 A Priori Expectation…………………………………………………………………24

3.4 Sources of Data………………………………………………………………………24

3.5 Measurement of Data………………………………………………………………...24

3.6 Data Analysis Techniques……………………………………………………………24

3.7 Model Justification …………………………………………………………………..25

3.8 Method of Evaluation………………………………………………………………..25

CHAPTER FOUR: PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS OF RESULTS

4.0 Introduction………………………………………………………………………….26

4.1 Presentation of Result………………………………………………………………..26

4.2 Discussion of Results………………………………………………………………...26

4.4 Adjusted R-Squared …………………………………………………………………27

4.5 The F-Statistic……………………………………………………………………..…28

4.6 Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test……………………………………….28

4.7 Test of Hypothesis …………………………………………………………………..28

CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

5.1 Summary…………………………………………………………………………….30

5.2 Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………...30

5.3 Recommendation…………………………………………………………………….31

REFERENCES………………………………………………………………………….32

Appendix 1……………………………………………………………………………….36

Abstract

This study examines the effect of crude oil price on Nigerian economy from (1986-2015). In this research work, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) technique was used and six variables were used in the empirical analysis. Hence, real gross domestic product is assumed to be dependent variable, which depends on crude oil price (COP), real exchange rate (REER), government expenditure (GOVTEXP), inflation (INF) and money supply (MSP). The result reveals that crude oil price and exchange rate are significant determinants of Real GDP in Nigeria. It is, therefore, recommended that revenue from oil should be used judiciously in diversifying the economy. Also, government pursuit of managed float exchange rate is desirable to ensure a substantial increase in the external reserve without significant damage of the exchange rate of the country.