DETERMINANT OF AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT IN NIGERIA

ABSTRACT The study examines the determinants of agricultural output based on the empirical evidence of the short-run and long-run interrelationships among capital expenditure on agriculture, inflation rate, external reserve, interest rate, average annual rainfall and food importation using agricultural output as dependent variable. Macroeconomics data from 1970 – 2012 were sourced from Central Bank Statistical Bulletin and National Bureau of Statistics publications of several years. Data were analysed based on Johansen‟s test for multivariate cointegration and the corresponding Error Correction Models approach The result of Johansen test showed that the non-stationary among the variables used can cointegrate. This confirmed a long-run relationship among the variables with two cointegrating equations (p < 0.01). The coefficient of exchange rate of naira to US dollar (p