Integration Of Indigenous And Conventional Drought Prediction And Preparedness Techniques As A Drought Risk Reduction Strategy In Mbeere North Sub-County, Kenya

ABSTRACT

The study examines the prospects of integration of Indigenous Knowledge (IK) and conventional drought prediction and preparedness practices, with an overall aim of applying the two approaches as a Drought Risk Reduction (DRR) strategy in Mbeere North Sub-County of Embu County, Kenya. The objectives of the study included: To examine the perceptions of the Ambeere community on drought and its impact on the livelihoods; To document the main indigenous drought prediction and preparedness practices among the Ambeere and assess their significance to the community; To compare and contrast the indigenous knowledge of the community and the conventional approaches to drought prediction and preparedness; and, To suggest an integrated approach to drought prediction and preparedness for Mbeere North Sub-County. The research was based on a descriptive survey which targeted different categories of respondents including sages identified through purposive sampling techniques among elderly men and women in Mbeere North. The study samples were selected in Muminji and Evurori Wards, areas selected due to their central location and incidents of drought. Questionnaires were administered to purposively and randomly sampled members of local government ministries, Non-governmental Organizations (NGOs), Community Based Organizations (CBOs) and Faith Based Organizations (FBOs) to collect data on the various practices attached to indigenous and conventional drought prediction and preparedness. Key informant interviews and FGDs were held with purposively sampled representatives of various organizations and snowballed community elders to gather qualitative data on values, attitudes, traditions and beliefs attached to drought prediction and how they compare with the conventional weather forecasts. Data obtained through questionnaires were analyzed using SPSS version 17. Qualitative methods of data presentation including descriptive discussions and narratives were used to present pertinent information on values, attitudes and beliefs attached to drought prediction and preparedness. Descriptive statistics such as frequency distributions namely percentages and measures of central tendency were presented either in text, frequency tables, diagrams, figures or photographs thematically guided by the objectives of the study. The results showed that there was a statistical significant relationship p=0.00 between community’s drought perception and livelihood of Mbeere Sub-County community members. The study also found out that the total monthly loss of agricultural-related income as a result of drought was Ksh 7,816 per household. The study revealed that a wide array of both indigenous and conventional drought prediction and preparedness techniques prevailed in the community. There was an interface between the indigenous indicators and those used by formal meteorologists with several aspects of prediction such as animal/plant behavior and astronomical aspects overlapping in the two approaches. Though both conventional and indigenous drought forecasts contributed significantly in guiding the mitigation of drought effects, the community members were strongly inclined towards the local indigenous environmental indicators that they have interacted with and relied on to predict droughts for a long time. Documentation of Ambeere Indigenous Knowledge (IK) on drought prediction and preparedness was found to be scanty, owing to the gradual disregard of the same by the formal sector. Incorporation of the Ambeere indigenous drought prediction practices into the formal forecasts have been recommended in this study with a view to establishing a ‘hybrid’ weather prediction model in the Mbeere North Sub-County.