Modeling the Influence of Human Population Structure Dynamics On Forest Biomass Availability: A Case Study of Kartala Forest, in Western-Mbadjini Region of Comoros

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ABSTRACT This study intended to develop a model showing the influence of human population structure dynamics on forest biomass cover. By establishing the relationship between forest cover and human sub-populations, a regression model was generated for the prediction of the survival of Kartala forest. The Zero, Juvenile and Senior free as well as the interior equilibrium states of the model were obtained and analyzed for stability. Numerical simulations of the various model parameters were obtained using mat-lab software. The simulation gave the public enlightenment coverage level that would guarantee high forest biomass density and thus optimum yield. Pearson correlation analysis was used to establish the relationship between Kartala forest cover and the sub-populations (Juvenile and Senior). 

TABLE OF CONTENTS

DECLARATION

APPROVAL

DEDICATION iv

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

LIST OF TABLES

LIST OF FIGURES

ABBREVIATIONS ANT) SYMBOLS

LIST OF ACRONYMS

ABSTRACT

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background ofthe Study 1

1.2 Statement ofthe problem 4

1.5 Research questions

1.3 Purpose ofthe Study

1.4 Objectives of the study

1.6 I-Typothesjs

1.7 Scope of the Study 5

1.7.1 Geographical Scope 5

1.7.2 Content Scope 6

1.7.3 Time Scope 6

1.8 Significance ofthe study 6

CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Forest definition 8

2.2 Theoretical Review 9

2.3 Conceptual Framework 11

2.3.1 The concept of forest management 11

2.3.2 The concept of community participation in forest management 12

2.3.3 The concept of Forest management plan 13

2.4 Review ofrelated literature 14

2.5 Research gap 16

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CHAPTER THREE

METHODOLOGY

3.1 Study site 17

3.2 Research Design 17

3.3 Methods used for the objectives 18

3.3.1 Objective 1 18

3.3.2 Objective 2 18

3.3.3 Objective ~ 18

3.4 Data Sources 18

3.5 Data collection instruments 19

3.6 Data Analysis 20

3,7 Formulation of the model 20

CI-IAPTER FOUR

DATA ANALYSIS PRESENTATION AND INTERPRETATION

4.1 Objective 1: Analysis and simulation of various model parameters 22

4.1.1 Model analysis 22

4.1.2 Obtaining the equilibrium states of the model 22

4.1.3 Analyzing for the stability of equilibrium model 24

4.1.4 Simulation of various parameters of the model with forest biornass 26

4.1.5 Simulation of various model parameters with sub-populations density 28

4.2 Objective 2: Determining the relationship between the sub-populations ofMbadjini region

of Comoros and Kartala forest cover 29

4.2.1 Statistical analysis 29

4.2.2 Data presentation and Interpretation 29

4.2.3 Decision on the hypothesis 29

4.3 Objective 3: Obtaining a regression model for Kartala forest cover 30

4.3.1 Statistic analysis 30

4.3.2 Data presentation and interpretatjoi~ 30

CHAPTER FIVE

DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

5.1 Result discussion 32

5.1.1 The model equatioii 32

5.1.2 The correlation analysis 33

5.1.3 The regression model 33

5.2 Conclusion 34

5.3 Recommendation 35