ABSTRACT
This study examined the modelling for maize prices using Autoregressive Integrated
Moving Average (ARIMA) models so as to determine the most efficient and
adequate model for analyzing the maize monthly prices at the Gairo market in
Morogoro Region, Manyoni market in Singida Region and Kibaigwa market in
Dodoma Region. The results indicate that ARIMA (1, 1, 4) model is the most
adequate and efficient model for Gairo market, ARIMA (2, 1, 3) model is the most
adequate and efficient mode1 for Manyoni market and ARIMA (2, 2, 3) model is the
most adequate and efficient model for Kibaigwa market. This was determined by
comparing the various model selection criteria and the diagnostic tests for various
models among them Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and Bayesian Information
Criteria (BIC) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Time-series analysis
was done using STATGRAPHICS, EXCEL, R software and SAS JPM. The forecast
results suggest that there are expectations of increasing maize prices in Manyoni
market from July-2018 to March-2019, the maize prices in Kibaigwa market are also
expected to increase with time from January 2018 to February 2019 and the maize
prices at Gairo market are expected to keep on increasing with time from July 2018
to May 2019. A better understanding of maize prices situation and future prices will
enable producers and consumers to make the right choices concerning buying and
selling arrangements.
Hence, the government should take appropriate actions to make
MHOHELO, D (2021). MODELLING AND FORECASTING RETAIL PRICES OF MAIZE FOR THREE AGRICULTURAL MARKETS IN TANZANIA. Afribary. Retrieved from https://afribary.com/works/modelling-and-forecasting-retail-prices-of-maize-for-three-agricultural-markets-in-tanzania
MHOHELO, DORIS "MODELLING AND FORECASTING RETAIL PRICES OF MAIZE FOR THREE AGRICULTURAL MARKETS IN TANZANIA" Afribary. Afribary, 26 Apr. 2021, https://afribary.com/works/modelling-and-forecasting-retail-prices-of-maize-for-three-agricultural-markets-in-tanzania. Accessed 22 Nov. 2024.
MHOHELO, DORIS . "MODELLING AND FORECASTING RETAIL PRICES OF MAIZE FOR THREE AGRICULTURAL MARKETS IN TANZANIA". Afribary, Afribary, 26 Apr. 2021. Web. 22 Nov. 2024. < https://afribary.com/works/modelling-and-forecasting-retail-prices-of-maize-for-three-agricultural-markets-in-tanzania >.
MHOHELO, DORIS . "MODELLING AND FORECASTING RETAIL PRICES OF MAIZE FOR THREE AGRICULTURAL MARKETS IN TANZANIA" Afribary (2021). Accessed November 22, 2024. https://afribary.com/works/modelling-and-forecasting-retail-prices-of-maize-for-three-agricultural-markets-in-tanzania