The prediction of Large Earthquakes (LE) constitutes a global challenge.
Several methods of earthquake prediction including Pattern Recognition (PR) have
been proposed but sometimes produce patterns that are not suitable. Occurrence of
earthquakes is always assumed to be random when these methods produce
unreliable pattern. The fact that these patterns considered to be random could be
chaotic (predictable but difficult) has not been investigated. This study was designed
to use chaos theory to investigate patterns of occurrence of earthquakes where PR
method gives unreliable pattern.
Earthquake data (1899-2009) of the Circum-Pacific seismic zone were
extracted from the catalogue of Advanced National Seismic System (USA). The
zone is the source of 90% of the world's earthquakes and the one with most
recorded data. The zone was divided into five regions [Rl(Lat 55° to 67° ; Long -
170° to -145°), R2(Lat 32° to 44° ; Long 134° to 148°), R3(Lat 39° to 50° ; Long
140° to 157°), R4(Lat -42° to -29° ; Long -80° to -66°), R5(Lat 48° to 54° ; Long -
179° to -160°)] based on the pattern of occurrence of small earthquakes. Events in
each region were divided into constant time intervals and annular width of 100 km
for the investigation of temporal and spatial distribution of the earthquakes
respectively. The PR method was applied to the data in each time interval and
annular width, and the pattern monitored using seismic b-values and the locations of
the maximum seismic energy. The b-values were determined from GutenbergRichter law using the linear curve fitting method, while the locations of the
maximum seismic energy were determined using Compicat program. Using
chaos theory, the phase space plots of the seismic activities were constructed to
determine the space clustering of the seismic events associated with LE. The
Lyapunov Exponent (LEX) and its spectrum were obtained using Wolf and Sprott
procedures to provide a picture of the system's dynamics and determine whether it
is random or chaotic.
The Public Access, L (2021). Prediction Of Large Earthquakes Using Pattern Recognition Method And Chaos Theory. Afribary.com: Retrieved April 10, 2021, from https://afribary.com/works/prediction-of-large-earthquakes-using-pattern-recognition-method-and-chaos-theory
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Library, The Public Access. "Prediction Of Large Earthquakes Using Pattern Recognition Method And Chaos Theory". Afribary.com, Afribary.com, 05 Apr. 2021. Web. 10 Apr. 2021. < https://afribary.com/works/prediction-of-large-earthquakes-using-pattern-recognition-method-and-chaos-theory >.
Library, The Public Access. "Prediction Of Large Earthquakes Using Pattern Recognition Method And Chaos Theory" Afribary.com (2021). Accessed April 10, 2021. https://afribary.com/works/prediction-of-large-earthquakes-using-pattern-recognition-method-and-chaos-theory