EFFECT OF OIL PRICE FLUCTUATIONS ON THE PRICE OF SELECTED AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES IN NIGERIA (JANUARY 2000 – DECEMBER 2015)

Richard Ogunsola 88 PAGES (17696 WORDS) Project
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This study was conducted to examine the effect of oil price fluctuations on the price of selected agricultural commodities in Nigeria using time series data sourced from Central Bank website, United States Energy Information Administration (E.I.A) website and Food and Agricultural Organization Statistics (FAOSTAT) between January 2000 and December 2015. The variables employed include oil price, exchange rate, the price of agricultural commodities (rice, wheat, soybean, palm oil). The Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (NARDL) was employed in the analysis of the data using Eviews 9.0.

 The result of the data analysis revealed that increase and decrease in oil price have a positive and significant relationship with the price of all the agricultural commodities in the short run, while in the long run, increase and decrease in oil price have a positive but insignificant relationship with the price of all the agricultural commodities. 

This study therefore conclude that oil price have a short run positive effect on the price of the selected agricultural commodities. Thus, it is recommended, based on the findings of this study that the government should formulate agricultural policies that will insulate the economy in the short run against any global food crisis that may result from oil price change. 


TABLE OF CONTENTS
TITLE i
CERTIFICATION ii
DEDICATION iii
ACKNOWLEDEMENT iv
TABLE OF CONTENT v
LIST OF TABLES ix
LIST OF FIGURES x
ABSTRACT xi
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Background of the study 1
1.2 Statement of the Problem 3
1.3 Objective of the study 7
1.4 Research Hypothesis 7
1.5 Justification for the study 8
1.6 Scope of the study 8
1.7 Plan of the study 8
CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW 10
2.0 Introduction 10
2.1 Theoretical Review 10
2.1.1 Theory of Real Business Cycle 11
2.1.2 Neutrality Hypothesis 11
2.1.3 Conservation Hypothesis 12
2.1.4 Growth Hypothesis 12
2.1.5 Feedback Hypothesis 112
2.2 Methodological Review 13
2.3 Empirical Review 16
CHAPTER THREE: THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK AND METHODOLOGY 19
3.0 Introduction 119
3.1 Theoretical Framework 19
3.2 Methodology 19
3.2.1 Study Area 20
3.2.2 Data and Measurement of Variables 23
3.3 Estimation Procedures 24
3.3.1 Preliminary analysis 24
3.3.1.1 Descriptive Statistics 24
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3.3.1.2 Graphical analysis 25
3.3.1.3 Formal pre-test 25
3.3.1.4 Unit root test 26
3.3.1.5 Co-integration Test 26
3.3.2 Estimation Technique 26
3.3.3 Post Estimation 27
3.3.3.1 Normality Test 27
3.3.3.2 Heteroscedasticity Test 27
3.3.3.3 Serial correlation Test 28
3.3.3.4 Linearity Test 28
CHAPTER FOUR: PRESENTATION AND DISCUSSION OF RESULT 29
4.0 Introduction 29
4.1 Preliminary Analysis 29
4.1.1 Descriptive statistics 29
4.1.2 Graphical Analysis 31
4.1.3 Unit root Test 33
4.1.4 Co-integration Test 35
4.2 Model Estimation Result 38
4.2.1 Empirical Analysis 38
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4.2.2 Wald Test 43
4.3 Post Estimation 50
4.3.1 Normality Test 50
4.3.2 Test for Serial correlation 50
4.3.3 Test for Heteroscedasticity 50
4.3.4 Linearity Test 50
CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION 52
5.1 Summary of Major Findings 52
5.2 Conclusion of the Study 53
5.3 Recommendation of the Study 54
5.4 Suggestion for Further Studies 55
REFERENCES 56
APPENDIX 60
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APA

Richard, O (2019). EFFECT OF OIL PRICE FLUCTUATIONS ON THE PRICE OF SELECTED AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES IN NIGERIA (JANUARY 2000 – DECEMBER 2015). Afribary.com: Retrieved October 16, 2019, from https://afribary.com/works/richard-full-project

MLA 8th

Ogunsola, Richard. "EFFECT OF OIL PRICE FLUCTUATIONS ON THE PRICE OF SELECTED AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES IN NIGERIA (JANUARY 2000 – DECEMBER 2015)" Afribary.com. Afribary.com, 04 Jul. 2019, https://afribary.com/works/richard-full-project . Accessed 16 Oct. 2019.

MLA7

Ogunsola, Richard. "EFFECT OF OIL PRICE FLUCTUATIONS ON THE PRICE OF SELECTED AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES IN NIGERIA (JANUARY 2000 – DECEMBER 2015)". Afribary.com, Afribary.com, 04 Jul. 2019. Web. 16 Oct. 2019. < https://afribary.com/works/richard-full-project >.

Chicago

Ogunsola, Richard. "EFFECT OF OIL PRICE FLUCTUATIONS ON THE PRICE OF SELECTED AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES IN NIGERIA (JANUARY 2000 – DECEMBER 2015)" Afribary.com (2019). Accessed October 16, 2019. https://afribary.com/works/richard-full-project