Abstract:
The issues of a social network, pluralism in the seed system, and adaptation to climate change are becoming more commanding in the tragedy of climate change and variability. Adaptation decisions are often based on interactions between people and their collective activities, which are mediated through informal networks from which resources may be derived and facilitate access to information needed for adaptation. The objective of this study was to analyze the role of social networks in multiple seed systems for climate change adaptation in Easter Oromia, Hararghe, Ethiopia which has been frequently affected by climate change and variability. A representative sample of 278 farm households was taken through multi-stage sampling techniques. A ‘random matching within sample’ technique was used to collect data on social networks and 2245 dyads were used for relational data. Temperature and perception data were obtained from the NMA of Ethiopia from 1986-to-2018 years. Consequently, the magnitude and direction of climate change parameters were analyzed by Mann–Kendall’s (MK) trend tests and Sen’s slope estimator while variability was examined by a coefficient of variation (CV) and standardized anomalies index (Z). A probit regression model was used to identify determinants of climate change information and seed information exchange link formation. Determinants of farmers' seed source choice were analyzed by the MVP model. The effect of social networks on farmers' participation in FBSc was analyzed by a probit regression model. Belg rainfall was highly and moderately variable for the west and east zone. About 50% of the years indicate negative anomalies for the study period for both zones ranging from extremely-to-mild drought. Though the magnitude is different, MK trend test for annual and Belg rainfall was decreasing for both zones. The MK trend test shows an increasing trend for annual minimum temperature. Farmers' perceptions of climate change trends and variability were supported by climate data. The results of the probit model reveal that level of education; age, sex, and land size difference between the nodes was positively associated with climate change information and seed information network link formation. Seed information and climate change information network link formation was around strong social ties. Factors that determine farmers' participation in xvii FBSc include, social network size, links with relatives, and extension agents, access to off-farm income, and perception of profit. The correlation between informal and intermediary was positive shows complementary, and the correlation between formal and intermediary was a negative substitute for haricot bean. This implies climate change and variability work against a single optimal seed source. The result of the MVP model for sorghum shows that the likelihood of households choosing formal, informal, and intermediary sources was 10.79%, 75.18%, and 66.9% respectively. MVP outcome reveals age, extension, credit, and adaptability traits were negatively affected by informal seed source choice for sorghum. Marketability traits and education level were factors that affect informal seed source choice. Age and credit were significant factors that affect the formal seed source for sorghum. The size of social networks and education negatively affected formal seed source choice for sorghum. Size of the network, extension, off-farm income, climate change perception, and being members of FBSc were significant factors that affect intermediary seed source choice for sorghum. Off-farm income, market information, and climate change perception negatively affected informal seed source choice for haricot beans but the size of the network positively affected informal seed source choice for haricot beans. It was found that social network was used as a tool that plays a significant role in exchanging climate change and seed-related information which improves the seed circulation system, facilitate farmers' participation in FBSc as an alternative seed option, and influence seed source choices of the farm household. In nutshell, pluralistic seed systems strengthen the diversification of seed sources and integration of multiple seed systems, as farmers save, share, and buy seeds year after year. Therefore, any intervention in seeds should promote diverse seed sources as a strategy to ensure seed security and adaptation to climate change shocks.