Statistical Analysis And Modeling Of Prevalence Of Malaria In Nyasa District-Tanzania

ABSTRACT

Malaria remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality, leading more than 600

million cases and two million deaths each year Worldwide. Over 90% of these cases

occur in sub-Saharan Africa where Falciparum Malaria is pervasive and the major

killer of children less than 5 years old.

This study was conducted to figure out the demographic factors that influence the

prevalence of Malaria in Nyasa District and to assess the level of knowledge and

awareness on malaria incurred by the domicile of Nyasa district. A cross-sectional

research design was applied and data were collected by systematic random

sampling. The demographic factors considered were age of respondent, sex of

respondent, place of residence, level of education and level of income. Binary

logistic regression models were developed on the available information to assess the

effects of malaria on households. Also the awareness and prevention practices were

evaluated. The model identifies the prevalence of malaria (proportion of cases of

malaria) under the influence of factors in Nyasa District, which will help planners

and other stakeholders on how to overcome the problem of malaria.

The results show that demographic variables had significant effect on the prevalence

of Malaria in Nyasa District. Also an adequate model was suggested using Hosmer

and Lemeshow test and the prevalence is predicted.

The government, health care NGOs and other stakeholders have to give due

attention to improve awareness on malaria and to maintain a hygienic living

conditions to the people of Nyasa as to eradicate the disease in the next decade.