Time Series Analysis on Consumption of Electricity in Kwara State, A Case Study Of a NEPA District Office From 2001-2015

Time Series Analysis on Consumption of Electricity in Kwara State,  A Case Study Of a NEPA District Office From 2001-2015

TABLE OF CONTENT
COVER PAGE
APPROVAL PAGE
DEDICATION
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
TABLE OF CONTENT

1.1           INTRODUCTION

1.2           BACKGROUND AND ITS OPERATION

1.3           SIGNIFICANCE

1.4           SCOPE OF STUDY

1.5           AIMS AND OBJECTIVE

1.6           PROBLEMS AND LIMITATION OF STUDY

1.7           DEFINITION OF TERMS

1.8           ABBREVIATION USED

CHAPTER TWO

2.0     LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1     METHOD OF DATA ANALYSIS

2.2     TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

2.3     IMPORTANCE OF TIME SERIES

2.4     NATURE OF TIME SERIES

2.5     CHARACTERISTICS OF TIME SERIES

2.6     TIME SERIES MODELS

2.7     OTHER COMPONENT OF THE TIME SERIES MODEL

2.8     AUTO REGRESSIVE MODEL

2.8.1   FIRST ORDER AND SECOND ORDER OF REGRESSIVE MODEL

2.8.2   COMPUTATION OF ESTIMATE

2.8.3   YULE PROCESS AR(2) PARAMETER PROCESS

2.8.4   AUTO CORRELATION FUNCTION FOR AR(2)

2.8.5   FOURIER ANALYSIS

2.8.6   SPECTRUM OF A TIME SERIES

2.8.7.  PERIODIOGRAM

2.8.8   CORRELATIONS

2.8.9   IMPORTANCE OF CORRELATION

CHAPTER THREE

METHODOLOGY

3.0     THEMED OF ESTIMATING TREND

3.1     LEAST SQUARE METHOD

3.2     MOVING AVERAGE METHOD

3.3     SEMI-MOVING AVERAGE METHOD

3.4     FREE HAND METHOD

3.5     ESTIMATION OF SEASONAL VARIATION

3.6     SIMPLE AVERAGE METHOD

3.7     PERCENTAGE TREND METHOD

3.8     RATIO TO MOVING AVERAGE

3.9     FORECASTING

3.9.0   SHORT TERM FORECASTING

3.9.1   INTERMEDIATE FORECASTING    

3.9.2.  LONG TERM FORECASTING

3.9.4   GENERALIZED TEST OF HYPOTHESIS

CHAPTER FOUR

4.1     ANALYSIS OF DATA

CHAPTER FIVE

5.1     SUMMARY OF FINDING

5.2     CONCLUSION

5.3     RECOMMENDATION

5.4     BIBLIOGRAPHY