VULNERABILITY OF COCOA PRODUCTION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: A CASE OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS IN GHANA

ABSTRACT

This  research work  focused on the effect of climate change on cocoa yield in some  selected  cocoa  districts  in  the  Eastern,  Ashanti,  Western  and  Central Regions  of  Ghana.  For  sustainable  cocoa  production,  weather,  which  is  an uncontrollable  variable,  is  an  important  factor  whose  effect  on  cocoa  is difficult to quantify in a field environment. This research has two components; effects of climate change on  cocoa production in Ghana and coping strategies of  cocoa  farmers.  The  Heckman’s  probit  model  and  multinomial  logit regression were used to measure the level of vulnerability and determine the factors that influence farmers’ choice of  coping  strategies. The effects  of two major  weather  parameters  –  rainfall  and  temperature  –  on  cocoa  yield  were evaluated  over thirteen years. The study revealed that there is a weak positive correlation  with  rainfall,  that  is,  increase  in  rainfall  results  in  an  increase  in yield. A relatively stronger positive correlation was established for maximum temperature. About seventeen percent (17.2%) of the variations in yield can be explained by the predictor variables. A one unit increase in temperature will result in a 2593.67 unit in yield and a one unit increase in rainfall will result in a  11.76  unit  increase  in  yield.  Cocoa  production  is  thus  vulnerable  without adaptation.  It was observed that adaptation could be behavioural, institutional and technological, and may differ from one locality to another