Road Infrastructure and Economic Growth in Uganda 2ooo-2o18

ABSTRACT This report investigated Road Infrastructure and Economic Growth in Uganda 2000 .- 2018, the Study considered all national roads, that is, paved and unpaved roads however, district roads were excluded due to lack of data for the entire period of the study. The emphasis on national roads was both due to data availability and the multiplier effects associated with these roads towards economic growth. The objectives of the study were to: establish the causality between economic growth and expenditure on road infrastructure, examine the effect of expenditure on paved and unpaved roads on economic growth ard the impact of coverage of paved and un paved road infrastructure on economic growth in Uganda. Simple OLS single-factor regression models were employed in analyzing the effect of road infrastructure on economic growth. The models regressed investment in road infrastructure, coverage of both paved and unpaved roads with the Gross domestic product (GDP) The secondary data used was obtained from various sources including the statistical abstracts, Background to the budget from U1~RA, UBOS, MFPED as well as World Bank data base. The results indicated that in the long-run when government increases investment in roads by one unit, the rate of economic growth will increase by 0.0 13222 percent, if government increases in coverage of paved roads by one unit, the rate of economic growth will grow by 0.003 and if government increases the coverage of un paved roads by one unit, the rate of economic growth will be 0.0008. Basing on the findings of the study government ~should commit more resources to increase provision of roads especially paved since they are relatively durable as well as making efforts for the unpaved roads to reach all parts including the rural areas to further stimulate economic growth through the multiplier effect. Also, both public and private sectors should increase on the directly productive capital in order to enhance sustainable economic growth in the country

Table of Contents

DECLARATION

CERTIFICATION

DEDICATION

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

ACRONYMS ix

CHAPTER ONE 1

INTRODUCTION 1

1.1.0 Historical Back Ground 1

1.1.2 Theoretical Perspective 3

1.1.3 Conceptual Perspective 3

1.1.4 Contextual Perspective 4

1.2,0 Problem Statement 4

1.3.1 Purpose of the Study 5

1.4.1 Specific Objective

1.4.1 Hypotheses

1.5.1 Scope of the Study 6

1.6.1 Significance of the Study 6

1.7.1 Organization of the Study 6

CHAPTER TWO 8

LITERATURE REVIEW 8

2.1.0 Introduction 8

2.2.0 Conceptual Definitions 8

2.2.1 Infrastructure 8

2.2.2 Economic Growth 9

2.3.0 Conceptual Framework 10

2.4.0 Theoretical Literature Review 11

2.4.l The Solow—Swan Model 11

2.4.2 The Endogenous Growth Theory 11

2.4.3 Modern Conception of Economic Growth Theories 12

2.5.0 Empirical Studies on Infrastructure Development and Economic Growth 12

CHAPTER THREE 15

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 15

3.1.0 Research Design.15

3.2.0 Methods of Data Collection 16

3.3.0 Reliability and Validity of Data 16

3.3.1 Reliability of Data 16

3.3.2 Validity of Data 17

3.4.1 Data Analysis 17

CHAPTER FOUR 19

PRESENTATION AND DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS 19

4.1.0 Introduction 19

4.2.0 Correlation Analysis 19

4.2.1 The Effects of Investment In Roads On Economic Growth In Uganda 20

4.2.2 The Relationship between Coverage Of Paved Roads And Economic Growth In Uganda 21

4.2.3 The impact of Coverage of Un paved roads on Economic growth in Uganda 21

4.3.0 Regression Results 22

Table 4.2 Regression Result 23

4.3.1 Regression equation 23

4.4.0 Discussion of the Results 23

CHAPTER FIVE 25

CONCLUSIONS, RECOMMENDATIONS AND AREAS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH 25

5.1.0 Introduction 25

5.2.0 Conclusion 25

5.3.0 Recommendations 25

5.4.0 Areas for Further Research 26

REFERENCES 27

APPENDICES 30

Appendix 1; the regression out put 30

Appendix 2; a table of data set used 31