ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WHEAT [TRITICUM AESTIVUM (L.)] AND BARLEY [HORDEUM VULGARE (L.)] PRODUCTION AND POTENTIAL ADAPTATION OPTIONS IN CENTRAL ETHIOPIA

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Abstract:

Climate change affects crop productivity in most parts of the world, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. This challenge is expected as a major threat to crop production in central Ethiopia. The major purpose of the study was to assess the current and future impacts of climate change on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) production in central Ethiopia and identify adaptation options. In order to achieve these objectives, the study combined climate analysis, field experimentation and crop modeling (DSSAT cropping system model) methodologies. The modeling work was supplemented by assessment of farmers’ perception of climate change and determinants of adaptation. Historical and future climate trends of 10 meteorological stations were analyzed using Mann-Kendall test. Rainfall variability was tested by rainfall anomaly and concentration indices. Implications of climate variables on wheat and barley yield were evaluated using bivariate correlation analysis. A household survey was conducted using 120 randomly selected households in 2017. The multinomial logit model was used to examine determinants of climate change adaptation. DSSAT crop model was calibrated with field experimental data of Kulumsa and Bokoji in 2016. The performance of the model was evaluated with experimental data of Holeta, Fitche, and Ambo stations in the same year. Wheat and barley yields were simulated for 1984-2014 and 2040-2069. Yield responses of two wheat and barley varieties were simulated for three planting dates combined with four levels of nitrogen.

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ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WHEAT [TRITICUM AESTIVUM (L.)] AND BARLEY [HORDEUM VULGARE (L.)] PRODUCTION AND POTENTIAL ADAPTATION OPTIONS IN CENTRAL ETHIOPIA

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