Fluid Dynamics Modelling Of The Impact Of Climate Change On Solar Radiation In Nigeria

ABSTRACT

Solar energy applications being developed to assist in limiting the extent of climate change through low-carbon technologies, rely on the natural environment that may be sensitive to changes in the climate, resulting from rising carbon emissions. Climate models are essential to predict the future of solar irradiance fields needed for long range planning of solar energy use. Despite the wide use of numerial models on precipitation and agriculture, their applications on measuring the effect of changing climate on renewable energy resources and weather parameters that contribute to building comforts are very sparse. In this study, the nature of seasonal and interannual variability of solar radiation is investigated alongside global solar radiation climatologies. The International Centre for Theoretical Physics regional climate model (ICTP-RegCM3) driven by European Centre/Hamburg 5 general circulation model (ECHAM5-GCM) and based majorly on the fundamental principles of Newton’s second law, the conservation of mass, the equation of state and the first law of thermodynamics was generated for Nigeria under an enhanced atmospheric CO2 level for the period 1981 to 2100. The model was validated using 11-year solar radiation and mean atmospheric temperature data from two observatories (Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) and the National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA)). Data were analysed using descriptive statistics and Fisher test (p