Econometric Analysis Of The Effect Of Oil Theft On Tanker Shipping In Nigeria

ABSTRACT

The study carried out the econometric analysis of the effect of oil theft on tanker shipping in Nigeria.The specific objectives of this study were to examine the relationship between crude oil export trade, refined petroleum import trade and maritime GDP in Nigeria. To achieve these objectives, secondary data were sourced from CBN statistical bulletin, National bureau for statistics (NBS) and Nigerian National Petroleum cooperation (NNPC) .The data collected was subjected to econometric test of Ordinary Least Square of multiple regression analysis. The OLS results show that (i) an increase in shipping crude oil export trade will increase maritime GDP and hence a growth in maritime business.(ii) An increase in import of refined petroleum will improve maritime Gross domestic product and hence a growth of economic activities in Nigeria (iii Liner shipping connectivity TSCI variable indicates a direct proportionate relationship with maritime GDP per capita and hence contributing to the economic development of Nigeria shipping trade .(iv) An effect of ship calls on maritime GDP will improve shipping trade in Nigeria. Based on these findings, the study recommend amongst others that; government agencies in ports should be drastically reduce in line with the presidential initiative on ease of doing business ,documentation process should be shorten so as to shorten the time for delivery of cargo to not longer than 48hours.. Furthermore, there is need for policy makers to be consistent, both in terms of formulation and policy implementation.

Key Words: Maritime GDP, Export trade, Import trade, tanker shipping connectivity and Ship calls.